Seasonal and Time-Series Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents: Seasonal Analysis of Road Accidents

Muhammad Shafay; Hafiza Naima Anwar; Ishrat Bibi; Abdul Samad; Naseem Akhtar; Aisha Rasheed; Mohammad Akber Kazi

doi:10.54393/pjhs.v5i05.1547

Authors

Muhammad Shafay Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Hazrat Bari Imam Sarkar Medical and Dental College, Islamabad, Pakistan
Hafiza Naima Anwar Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Shahida Islam Medical Complex, Lodhran, Pakistan
Ishrat Bibi Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Liaquat University of Medical and Health Sciences, Jamshoro, Pakistan
Abdul Samad Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Liaquat University of Medical and Health Sciences, Jamshoro, Pakistan
Naseem Akhtar Department of Anatomy, Sindh Medical College, Jinnah Sindh Medical University, Karachi, Pakistan
Aisha Rasheed Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Liaquat University of Medical and Health Sciences, Jamshoro, Pakistan
Mohammad Akber Kazi Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Bilawal Medical College, Liaquat University of Medical and Health Sciences, Jamshoro, Pakistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54393/pjhs.v5i05.1547

Keywords:

Road Traffic Accidents, Seasonal Trend, Time Series Analysis, Mortality

Abstract

Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) contribute a significant and escalating rate in harm, hospitalization, and mortality. This study assesses the seasonal trend and time series analysis of RTAs cases brought to casualty department of Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad, Pakistan. Objective: To conduct seasonal and time series analysis of RTA cases at Casualty Department of Liaquat University Hospital Hyderabad. Methods: Nine hundred and sixty-six road traffic accidents-related cases were examined through prospective study at casualty department, Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad, Pakistan from January 2020 to December 2022. The seasonal trend was demonstrated by drawing seasonal index plot and time series plot. Results: The largest occurrences of RTA-related cases were reported in the month of December, having 103 total cases with a mean of 34.33 ± 18.92. July had the second highest frequency of RTAs-related cases, with a total of 94 cases having a mean of 31 ± 5.43 cases. The second-highest number of cases was observed in July and November with approximately equal mean number of RTAs. The time series analysis demonstrated an increasing trend of RTAs-related cases in the last three months of the year. Conclusions: The number of cases connected to RTAs increased during seasons of extreme weather, such as the summer and winter, and it also showed an increasing tendency in the last quarter of 2022.

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